Trump or Harris? China wonders which of the two candidates for the White House would be worse for it

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao attends a press conference on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China, March 6, 2024. TINGSHU WANG/REUTERS China is following the U.S. election campaign with the greatest attention, wondering not which is the right candidate for her, convinced that there is none, but which is the worst. In this country which does not have elections, we impatiently await the result of the vote, on the other side of the Pacific, over which we have no control but which we nevertheless consider decisive for China’s rise. as the rivalry has sharpened in recent years between the two great powers. Read also | Live, American presidential: twenty-two days before the election, the latest information on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and the answers to your questions Add to your selections The campaign, from the Chinese point of view, could have been worse. It has so far revolved more around the personality of the candidates, the migration issue and the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, than it has focused on the Chinese threat, even if the subject comes up regularly. But in circles close to Chinese foreign policy, we note that measures to hinder China are one of the rare subjects that can generate a form of understanding in Washington. The fact that the outgoing president, Joe Biden, retained during his mandate most of the customs taxes that his predecessor, Donald Trump, had instituted, did not go unnoticed. “Republicans and Democrats fight on just about everything, except when it comes to China. We have the impression that this is the only consensus on Capitol Hill,” notes Wang Dong, a professor of international relations at Peking University, the country’s most prestigious political science university, who has often visited in the United States. On this green campus in the north of the Chinese capital where the elite is trained, observers review the difficulties and opportunities to expect from a victory in November for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. The subject does not leave the rest of the population indifferent either. Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers China is having a hard time at the American embassy Add to your selections Two schools of thought Two schools of thought stand out. There are those for whom it is indisputable that Donald Trump would be the greatest challenge. China’s economy is already struggling and the former president is threatening to impose 60% customs duties on all products delivered by the world’s largest exporter. Chinese GDP and jobs could suffer from further escalation in the trade war between the two countries. Donald Trump had already surrounded himself during his first term with “super hawks” obsessed with the Chinese threat. Above all, the erratic character of the Republican is a difficult factor to manage for the main rival of the United States. In its rise to power, China is carving out a space that is shaking up the world order, for example by building bases on artificial islands in the South China Sea or by pushing its navy, and in particular its new aircraft carriers, further afield. of his ribs. It is therefore until now rather the American established power which finds itself in the role of moderator, hesitating to react because fearing an escalation. Trump’s unpredictability would reverse these roles, putting Beijing on the defensive. You have 64.53% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.



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