One military exercise after another, China prepares for a potential invasion of Taiwan

On the giant screen of a Beijing shopping center, a news program broadcasts Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, October 14, 2024. GREG BAKER / AFP The maneuvers this time lasted only one day, Monday October 14, and the rhetoric seems almost routine between the two banks of the strait. The Chinese army presented them as “serious warnings” in the face of “separatist actions”, four days after the first National Day speech by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, elected in January and hated by Beijing. In return, the latter pledged to “protect a democratic Taiwan and safeguard national security”. Behind what could be taken for symbolic gesticulations not concretely affecting the daily lives of the Taiwanese, China is moving forward in its preparation, if it were to one day opt for a real invasion of the island, which it claims as one of its provinces. Beijing is escalating the pressure exerted, as illustrated by the record of 153 Chinese planes detected near the island in one day until 6 a.m. Tuesday, according to the Taiwanese defense ministry. Since 2020, its aviation has increased incursions near the island. First by day, then by day and night, then by means of fighter and intelligence aircraft, by carrying out resupply operations, and finally by sending drones. These maneuvers allow pilots of the Chinese army, which has no recent combat experience – unlike the American or Russian forces – to improve in all these areas. And they exhaust the Taiwanese forces, whose fighters must take off to prepare an interception if these planes do not turn back. “The constantly increasing frequency of incursions puts great pressure on aviation. The pilots are tired, there are aircraft maintenance issues, the availability rate of which is falling. Our defense capacity is suffering,” notes retired general Chang Yan-ting, former number two in the Taiwanese Air Force. It has just under 150 American F-16 fighters and around fifty aging Mirage 2000s, hence an acute need for modernization. Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers In China, a latest generation nuclear-powered submarine sinks at the dock Add to your selections Among its planes, China notably sends Y-8s, an intelligence aircraft – and not a combat aircraft – which has underwater detection capabilities, particularly in the area that separates southern Taiwan from the northern Philippines, the Bashi Strait. For China, it is a question of better understanding the area, as well as the movement in it of American nuclear submarines. In the event of war, they would be the great threat to Chinese ships. You have 62.17% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.



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