“A victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election could have a considerable impact on China”

Workers install solar panels in Lingwu, in the Ningxia region (north China), October 28, 2024. – / AFP American voters will not be the only ones glued to their television screens on the night of Tuesday November 5 to Wednesday November 6, to follow the results of the presidential election. On the other side of the planet, Chinese deputies will not miss a beat. The result in Washington should indeed directly influence the decision they will have to make. Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers China in search of economic recovery Read later This first week of November sees the meeting of the standing committee of the National People’s Assembly, the supreme body of Parliament. His task: to decide, by Friday November 8, the amount of the economic stimulation plan. However, a victory for Donald Trump could have a considerable impact. If the Republican candidate were elected and implemented his promise to tax products imported from China, it could have catastrophic consequences for the country. In a note published in July, the bank UBS calculated that if the tax planned by the candidate of at least 60% were applied on all products coming from China, this could halve the country’s growth. year of its implementation, i.e. 2.5 points of growth. Consumption is slipping Long reluctant to support its lame ducks at arm’s length, particularly in real estate, the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, only recently decided to draw the classic weapon of recovery plan. His idea was rather to promote high technology in order to catch up with America on its favorite terrain. And to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2035. He also wanted to avoid falling into the real estate trap which paralyzed Japanese growth for thirty years. He therefore pushed for investment and exports in electronics, solar energy, electric cars, materials, etc. But Chinese citizens see things differently. Many have been ruined by the explosion of the real estate bubble, consumption is slipping, youth unemployment is not weakening and local authorities are in great financial difficulty. Read also: Article reserved for our China-United States subscribers: “Economists fear the effects of a decoupling of the world’s two leading economies, catastrophic for security and growth” Read later The Chinese power discovers that everything is linked, export and domestic consumption, high technologies and traditional industry. The plan voted by parliamentarians, which could, according to analysts, reach 2,000 billion yuan (259 billion euros), will above all help indebted local authorities and make it possible to recapitalize the banks. This will not be enough to restore morale to Chinese consumers. Will major works need to be relaunched as during the 2008 financial crisis? Mr. Xi, educated in the Japanese counter-example, is resisting this temptation. Donald Trump will perhaps help him take the plunge.



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