In Southeast Asia, Vietnam intends to escape Donald Trump’s reprisals

Samsung Electronics factory in the Vietnamese province of Bac Ninh (Vietnam), June 11, 2024. NHAC NGUYEN / AFP The major exporting economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have largely capitalized on the firmness of Trump on China during his first term. Customs taxes and then restrictions on the supply of high-tech components to China, endorsed by the Biden government, have favored rapid and viable alternatives to Chinese production in these low-cost countries – a strategy known as “ China +1”. Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers Southeast Asia, winner of the political-economic rivalry between China and the United States Read later By promising during his campaign 60% customs duties for Chinese products and 10% for others, will the American president-elect further accelerate this phenomenon of relocation for the benefit of South-East Asia? Or are the most successful exporters in South-East Asia not likely to find themselves in the same basket as China? The issue is of concern in Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Bangkok – but perhaps nowhere more than in Hanoi. Champion of growth in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has been one of the big winners from the diversification of electronic equipment manufacturers outside China: the South Korean Samsung, the Taiwanese Foxconn and the American Intel have invested billions in telephony and electronic components, which have become Vietnam’s leading export destination. “Populist rhetoric” As a result, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States increased from 38.3 billion dollars (36.40 billion euros) in 2017, at the start of Donald Trump’s first term, to 105 billion in 2023 (99.90 billion euros) – and 96 billion (91.35 billion euros) just for the first nine months of 2024. “ Vietnam is, with its expanding industrial capacity, in a privileged position to continue to welcome relocations. [en provenance de Chine] “, writes Marco Förster, Hanoi-based analyst for Dezan Shira & Associates, in a recent note. “But if Trump’s populist rhetoric and protectionist policies begin to target Vietnamese exports, in the same way they did for Mexico and the European Union during his campaign, this opportunity could quickly transform in great vulnerability,” he continues. Vietnam ranks fourth in trade deficits recorded by the United States, behind those with Mexico, the European Union, and finally, the “champion” China. You have 56.98% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.



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