Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.
By Niels Lesniewski, Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire
Fundraising isn’t everything when it comes to campaigns — but it certainly does not hurt.
The third-quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission can provide a reasonable barometer of where enthusiasm stands, especially in House races where public polling may be limited in availability, if it exists at all.
On this metric, things look good for House Democrats. As we reported this morning, of the 32 contests identified by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales as either tilting in a direction or a pure toss-up, Republicans led the fundraising in just two of them.
The Democrats in seven of those contests brought in more than $3 million in receipts in the third quarter, according to data compiled by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly, with Eugene Vindman, who is seeking an open seat in Northern Virginia, raising an astronomical $6.5 million.
The GOP’s top performer among these 32 races is California Rep. Michelle Steel. Her nearly $2.7 million raised, including a $1 million loan, put her ahead of any other Republican candidate on that list. Steel is facing Democratic challenger Derek Tran in the Orange County-based seat in the 45th District, one of several SoCal contests expected to help determine which party will hold the majority in the 119th Congress.
So it’s no surprise that both Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., were in the neighborhood over the weekend, as the Orange County Register reported.
“The House Republican majority runs through California, where our battle-tested incumbents and strong candidates will help us keep and grow the majority this November,” Johnson said in a statement Wednesday after completing his most recent California swing.
Starting gate
Tim Scott to NRSC? It’s never too early to look ahead to the next cycle, and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., appears to be gearing up for a run to lead the NRSC into the 2026 midterms. In the meantime, he’s fundraising and campaigning for colleagues to try to win the Senate majority this year. At first glance, the 2026 map is less favorable for the GOP.
Hispanic inroads: Republican operatives reviewing presidential polls that show Trump’s numbers with Hispanic voters strengthening compared with past elections are hopeful it could help the GOP hold on to control of the House.
Upstate upshot: New York Reps. Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro faced off in a special election two years ago. Now, both are fighting for reelection in separate districts that highlight major themes of this election cycle such as immigration and abortion, Roll Call’s Victor Feldman reports.
In Plains site: What began as a long-shot quest by political independent Dan Osborn to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer has turned into a competitive race with the potential to defy expectations and reshape the Senate map.
ICYMI
Endorsement watch: Former Rep. Liz Cheney endorsed Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., marking the Wyoming Republican’s first endorsement of a congressional incumbent this cycle.
Yes, Election Day is still a Tuesday: The Michigan Legislative Black Caucus accused Tom Barrett, a Republican former state senator running to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan’s 7th District, of misleading Black voters by running an ad that misstates Nov. 6 as Election Day in a Black-owned newspaper. Barrett’s campaign told The Washington Post that it was a “proofing error” and that the newspaper’s edition next week would include an ad with the correct date.
Inside/out internals: Fresh polling memos from both the NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund ended up leaking to Politico in quick succession on Sunday and Tuesday. One not unexpected takeaway? The Wisconsin race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde looks exceptionally close.
Raising Kean: The race for New Jersey’s 7th District is looking tight, according to a new Monmouth University poll out Wednesday. It found 46 percent of registered voters would definitely or probably vote for Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr., while 44 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for Democratic challenger Sue Altman.
What we’re reading
Our old friend turnout: Stu Rothenberg writes that, even though the old saw about election results coming down to turnout is kind of a laugh line, it has the benefit of being true — and who turns out differs from election to election, making things particularly interesting.
Stealth ads: Crypto-backed super PACs are spending big on House and Senate races, but you wouldn’t know it from the ads they’re funding. Politico looked at the cryptocurrency industry’s ad onslaught in races across the country and found that none of them mentioned crypto.
WSJ on Thune: The Wall Street Journal reports on Senate Minority Whip John Thune’s effort to mend fences with former President Donald Trump. The South Dakota senator has been traveling the country on behalf of GOP Senate candidates as he campaigns himself for Republican leader with the pending departure from that post of current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
On the air: CNN has a detailed look at House race TV spending, with California and New York races drawing in nearly 30 percent of the money for the period from the end of primary season through Oct. 10. Those states have the combination of expensive media markets and a boatload of competitive races.
Sibling rivalry redux: Several siblings of Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar are once again backing the Republican’s general election opponent, the Arizona Republic reports. This is not a new phenomenon, although in the most recent video from the campaign of Democrat Quacy Smith, the siblings say that at least some of them have pondered changing their names to disassociate from the congressman.
Nathan’s notes
In the latest race ratings changes for Inside Elections, Nathan L. Gonzales notes, “It’s mixed news for members named Don, as both Nebraska’s 2nd District and North Carolina’s 1st shift from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.” And those are just two of the 10 rating changes. Read the rest here.
Key race: #FL13
Candidates: Incumbent GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is running for a second term against Democratic nominee Whitney Fox, whose background is in marketing and public relations and who previously worked for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority.
Why it matters: It’s an emerging battleground seat, with the DCCC adding Fox to its Red to Blue program on Sept. 26, after she bested the field in Florida’s August primary.
Cash dash: Fox reported raising more than $1 million in the third quarter, coming in ahead of Luna, who raised just a little less than that. Neither candidate has a huge amount of money, with Luna’s most recent report showing a cash advantage of just about $5,000.
Backers: Luna is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, while Fox’s backers include the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund.
What they’re saying: Among the Fox campaign’s criticisms of Luna have been her attendance at a North Carolina rally with Trump where Luna served as moderator in early October, after Hurricane Helene had come through the South. Since then, many of Luna’s constituents have also been dealing with recovering from the devastation left behind by Hurricane Milton.
Terrain: It’s a Pinellas County-based District. The race is rated Likely Republican by Inside Elections, and there’s been only one recent public poll, a survey released shortly after the primary showing Fox ahead by 4 points.
Wild card: Luna, speaking with Fox News Digital earlier this week, said she had been surprised by a phone call from President Joe Biden. “But as far as I am seeing, FEMA has been very helpful, and I’ve been in direct communication with them. And they’re absolutely going to assist, because President Biden has told them to do so,” Luna said.
The count: 27
That’s how many of the 32 House races rated as the most competitive by Inside Elections have seen Democratic campaigns outspending their Republican opponents (by an average of $2.4 million) in the 2024 cycle as the Democrats look to flip the narrowly divided chamber. As noted above, Democratic campaigns outraised their opponents in 30 of the 32 closest House races last quarter. That has helped them maintain a higher rate of spending over the course of the entire two-year cycle in all but five of the races. Through September, Democratic campaigns have spent a total of $152.3 million in these races so far to the Republicans’ $94 million.
Coming up
Shortly before the next edition of this newsletter hits your inboxes, we’ll be part of a CQ Roll Call webinar on the race for control of the House and the Senate and its implications. Tune in on Thursday, Oct. 24, at 2 p.m. Eastern. You can register here.
Photo finish
A display featuring bacon-themed products is pictured Wednesday in Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon’s campaign office in Omaha. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
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Source : RollCall