Former president Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in six critical swing states, according to the latest poll by Emerson College Polling/ The Hill.
The positive news for the Trump campaign comes just after a Fox News 2024 presidential poll which shows Trump trailing President Joe Biden. National poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Biden leading Trump by 0.3 points in the national election, as of Friday morning.
According to the Emerson College Polling/ The Hill survey, Trump, who was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records at the end of May, has not seen a notable dip in his campaign numbers. Instead, the Make America Great Again (MAGA) campaigner appears to be holding a lead over President Biden in critical swing states, and the survey states that Trump has a 0.9 point advantage over Biden based on 187 polls.
Former President Donald Trump at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll shows Trump leading President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said.
He added that “Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states—however, there has been some movement among these voters since April.”
Swing states are closely watched because the presidential election is decided by Electoral College votes, not the popular vote, and they often carry a high number of electoral votes that can sway an election. With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, to win all the state’s electoral votes, a candidate must secure the state’s popular vote. To win the presidency, a candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes.
The survey, from June 13 to June 18, sampled 1,000 registered voters in each state: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. It has a “credibility interval” of plus or minus 3 percentage points in “19 or 20 cases in each state.”
The poll found Trump’s biggest lead to be in Arizona and Georgia, where he is up 4 points over Biden. In 2020, Biden narrowly won both states, securing Arizona’s 11 electoral votes and Georgia’s 16.
Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight places Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona by 2.6 points and leading by 4.6 points in Georgia, as of Friday.
The former president is up 3 points ahead of Biden in Wisconsin and Nevada. In the 2020 matchup, Biden won Nevada’s 6 electoral votes and pulled ahead in a tight Wisconsin race for its 10 votes.
FiveThirtyEight differs from the Emerson College Polling/ The Hill poll on Wisconsin, showing that, as of Friday, Biden is leading Trump by less than half a point (0.4). In Nevada, FiveThirtyEight echoes a similar result, with Trump leading by 2.9 points.
Pennsylvania now holds 19 electoral votes, one less than in 2020, and the Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll places Trump 2 points ahead of Biden in the key battleground state. In 2020, Biden secured Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.
The poll aggregator shows a much closer race in Pennsylvania, with Trump leading by 0.3 points as of Friday.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey finds Trump up by 1 point in Michigan, another state that lost one electoral vote, now totaling 15. Biden previously won the state in 2020. However, FiveThirtyEight’s polling as of Friday shows Biden leading Trump by half a point.
According to the June survey, both candidates are tied in Minnesota. FiveThirtyEight, however, places Biden 2.7 points ahead of Trump in the state, which holds 10 electoral votes.
Trump posted twice on his Truth Social accounts in support of the polls findings.
Newsweek reached out to Kimball, Trump’s campaign, and Biden’s campaign for comment via email on Friday.
Biden and Trump are set for their first presidential debate of this election cycle in less than a week, on June 27, hosted by CNN in Atlanta.
Uncommon KnowledgeNewsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source : Newsweek