Eyewatering supermarket grape prices expected to drop dramatically as local season approaches

If you have baulked at the price of table grapes at the supermarket lately the good news is they could drop by up to $10 a kilogram when the Australian season brings locally-grown produce to the shelves.

Predominantly US-grown grapes are currently selling for $9-22/kg at major supermarkets before Australia’s season which typically runs from November to May.

About 59 per cent of Aussie households bought table grapes last year, with an average domestic consumption of 4.15kg per person, according to industry body Hort Innovation.

But with an almost $1 billion industry, you might be wondering why prices fluctuate so much?

Export-focused 

Australia is a net exporter of table grapes, sending more than 132,000 tonnes overseas in 2022-2023.

Almost half of this fruit went to China, but a new report from Rabobank has revealed exports to our biggest buyer declined by 29 per cent last year. 

Rabobank horticultural analyst Pia Piggott said the decrease was because China has been ramping up its own grape production.

“They are turning from a net importer of grapes to a net exporter,” she said. 

“It’s not only Australia that has seen declines in exports to China. Chile and Peru are also major exporters of table grapes to China and they’ve also seen declines over the last few years as well.”

Analysts have also noted China’s shift towards self-sufficiency in other commodities, including wheat. 

Ms Piggott said while exports were also significantly down to Thailand and Vietnam, the market was more promising for Indonesia, South Korea, and Japan amid a new trade deal.

“There’s been a removal of export restrictions to Japan, meaning they now have access to 130 varieties of Australia’s table grapes,” she said.

“That should boost demand and exports to that region, particularly as they have growing demand for proprietary varieties and premium flavours.”

What about local grapes? 

Ms Piggott said domestic demand had grown about 11 per cent in the past year, with dollar sales also up about 10 per cent.

“We’ve definitely seen a lot of inflationary impacts all over in the fruit and fresh produce sector, and we definitely see a lot of seasonality when it comes to table grape prices,” she said.

“Right now they’re out of season so we’re importing table grapes — and they’re a lot more expensive.”

Australian Table Grape Association chief executive Jeff Scott said consumers should see a reduction in price once the local season started in November.

“When Australian domestic grapes come onto the market the price drops maybe $10 a kilo,” he said.

Mr Scott said the price should preferably be consistent year-round to ensure growers received a good return to help them remain in the industry.

“There’s a lot of pressure about bringing down cost-of-living prices, but unfortunately from the farmers’ point of view their input costs, like fuel and fertiliser, are going up,” he said.

Table grape grower Tony Lombardo, who farms at Menindee in far west New South Wales, said he was hoping for a good season after a tough three years.

“We have had issues with [Queensland] fruit fly, a spider problem, and with the rain we had issues with downy mildew,” he said.

“This year the crop is looking like it is going back to normal after it was light last year.”