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HomeNewsWhy Trump relaunches the trade war against China but spares the rest of Asia

Why Trump relaunches the trade war against China but spares the rest of Asia

by News7
Why Trump relaunches the trade war against China but spares the rest of Asia



Donald Trump revived this weekend a trade war against its three main economic partners, Mexico, Canada and China, who will see their customs duties increase in Tuesday, February 4 by 25 % for the first two and 10 % For Beijing (far from the 60 % promised by the candidate during his campaign). Ottawa retorted by announcing 25 % customs duties on certain American products. Mexico City has promised reprisals without giving more details. China “firmly opposes” to these customs duties (mainly aimed at microprocessors and electric cars) and promises to replicate by corresponding measures. Beijing will file a complaint against Washington to the World Trade Organization (WTO), while emphasizing his desire to negotiate as quickly as possible with Donald Trump on all litigation between the first two world powers. , Japan and the Philippines – South Korea has been going through a serious political crisis for several months – apprehensions differ. Donald Trump has not yet unveiled his transactional strategy. Tokyo is worried about being imposed on an increase in his defense budget while Manila, more confident, feels protected from the wrath of the American leader. With China, a Diplomacy of the New “New Yearla” begins badly for the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, yet the sign of the snake. Donald Trump held his promise to increase customs duties, from February 4, on products from China, which he accuses of unfair commercial practices and laissez-faire concerning fentanyl traffic in the United States. The Republican imposed on Saturday 10 % additional taxes on Chinese goods, in addition to those already in force. would be “no winner”. During his first mandate at the White House, the real estate magnate imposed customs duties on imports of Chinese products for hundreds of billions of dollars. Beijing had replied with import taxes from the United States, which particularly affected American farmers. It seems that at the dawn of Donald Trump’s second term, the standoff with China will continue but In a slightly less vindictive tone than in the past. The 10 % additional customs duties announced are much lower than the 60 % mentioned during its electoral campaign. “During his first mandate, Donald Trump violently criticized China,” said Lyle Goldstein, former soldier, director of the Asia Prédense Priorities program, a non -profit reflection group in Washington. “But it was too extreme,” he says, “China is certainly a threat, but it’s time to lower tensions in the region by diplomacy. For its part, Chinese power must retort. He announced that he wanted to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and consider reprisals. But in Beijing we are trying to relaunch a dialogue with Washington so as not to relive the tensions of past years. Especially because the Chinese economy is not in good shape. In addition, Xi Jinping knows very well that Donald Trump needs him if he wants to get an armistice in the Ukrainian conflict. For Lyle Goldstein, the American president is the man who can “shake the hand of everyone”, that of Kim Jong-Un like that of Xi Jinping, “and conclude a market”. worried. The day after Donald Trump’s swearing in on January 20, the editorials of the great Japanese daily newspapers, from the most liberal to the most conservative, all displayed deep skepticism. “Japan must depend less on the United States,” said one. “The world will become more uncertain with the unpredictable Trump,” warned another. “We have to fight American protectionism,” said the economic daily Nikkei. The campaign slogan “America First”, hammered by Donald Trump, does not reassure Japan whose security has depends for decades of the United States and its 50,000 soldiers based on Okinawa Island. “In the regional context More and more anxiety -provoking with aggressive China and a disturbing North Korea, Japan must imperatively strengthen its deterrent and increase its military defenses, analysis of Taizo Miyagi, professor at Chuo University in Tokyo, but we have very strong budgetary constraints . The country has a pacifist constitution written during the post-war period, which limits its military capacities to defensive measures. When Donald Trump’s first mandate, Tokyo had to yield to the pressures of the businessman who considered that the United States paid too much for his defense. He had done the same with regard to South Korea, which houses more than 30,000 soldiers. Thus the management contracts of the two American bases of Futenma and Kadena in Okinawa in Japan were renegotiated in favor of the Americans. “Tokyo thus finances 70 % of the costs of the American military presence in Japan today,” says Satoru Mori, professor of international relations at Keio University. Donald Trump had been successful. “We will reduce that financial pressures are still accentuated today,” predicts Satoru Mori. The country has already brought its defense budget to 2 % of national GDP by 2027, against 1 % so far. “We expect Trump to demand an increase to at least 3 % of GDP,” he adds. Massive budgetary pressure while the Japanese economy is not flourishing. A new summit with North Korea in surprise announces from Donald Trump. Questioned last week on Fox News television, the Oval Office occupier said he would contact the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. “He likes me and I get along well with him,” said Donald Trump. This is the first time that he has expressed his intention to contact his North Korean counterpart since his entry into office. “A week ago, I thought that international developments, like the war in Ukraine, had pushed Korea from the Korea North (RPDC) on the margins of Trump’s vision. But we see that he is always taking the question seriously and wants to be a breakthrough, ”reacted Andreï Lankov, professor at Kookmin University in Seoul. In addition, at the turn of a conversation with the press in the oval office, Donald Trump even qualified North Korea as “nuclear power”. A break with the longtime position of Washington which refuses to recognize the RPDC as such despite its possession of nuclear weapons. “It is true that there was no invective against Trump on the part of Pyongyang For five years (in the aftermath of the failure of negotiations between the two men in Hanoi in 2019, editor’s note) “, analyzes Chad O’Caroll, director of the North Korea Information Agency, NK News, in Seoul . “He is sure that Pyongyang will be curious to see what Trump wants him. But we are still far from seeing the “North Korean file” definitively settled. Before North Korea of ​​2025 is no longer that of 2018-2019. Its nuclear and missile programs have never progressed so much. And more than 10,000 of its soldiers are on the Russian front. For Anton Sokolin, specialist in Pyongyang-Moscow relations, “relations could certainly be returned between Washington and Pyongyang but we will have to be patient”. Even if with Donald Trump everything is possible. The Filippines assured of American support relations between the Philippines and the United States will not be upset by the return of Donald Trump. His new head of diplomacy, the curator Marco Rubio, who advocates a hard line vis-à-vis China, had reassured his Philippin counterpart, even before his swearing. “I recall the unwavering commitment of the United States to the Philippines in the context of our mutual defense treaty,” he said, denouncing the “dangerous and destabilizing actions of Beijing at the Southern China Sea”. This declaration had What calm Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos who, unlike his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022), has continued to strengthen military ties with the American ally. As a reminder, the two countries were already linked by a reinforced defense cooperation agreement dating from 2014, which allowed American troops to access five Philippine military bases. This pact, which has become a deciduous under the former pro-Pékin president, Rodrigo Duterte was relaunched and widened after the power of Ferdinand Marcos in June 2022. He now includes four additional sites, including a very close to Taiwan, nine in total. Concretely, American troops can carry out rotations there and store defense equipment there. In spite of the legitimate uncertainties that certain Asian countries may have on the new transactional diplomacy of Donald Trump, it seems that the Philippines have not -Chose to be feared because this archipelago which extends over thousands of kilometers at the China Sea represents a real natural barrier to the incursions of the Chinese navy to the Pacific. It is a strategic issue that the United States does not will not risk weakening by demanding immoderate expenses (increased military budget or threat of high customs duties) to a country that does not really have the means. And even before the installation of Donald Trump, the Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos had expressed his “optimism as to the maintenance of the strong and dynamic relationship” between the two countries, especially in terms of economics, defense and security. Washington and Manila “will continue to defend () common values ​​and the primacy of international law,” he said, sure of him.



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