HomeSport 2022 World Series odds: Super 6 picks, best bets for Astros-Phillies Game 3

2022 World Series odds: Super 6 picks, best bets for Astros-Phillies Game 3

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By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class, the time has come for your final exam: the World Series. Nothing gets better than this.

Hopefully, you’ve studied hard this season, learned new tools and made a few extra bucks in the process.  Remember to keep your eyes on your own papers for this last stretch because we’re going to go over Game 3, the overall series and some Super 6 fun.

So let’s dive in, with odds, of course, courtesy of FOX Bet!

Houston Astros’ Jeremy Pena exclusive interview after World Series Game 2 | Flippin’ Bats

Houston Astros’ Jeremy Pena gives an exclusive interview after World Series Game 2 with Ben Verlander.

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Houston Astros (McCullers) at Philadelphia Phillies (Syndergaard) at (8:03 p.m. ET Monday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Game 2 seemed like the first time in a long time that Phillies bats couldn’t get their ball club back into the game.

Framber Valdez allowed just five hard-hit balls in more than six innings of work, causing manageable ground balls with sinkers and curveballs. It’s interesting because, at least with the curve, the Phillies have one of the better lineups attacking that pitch, ranking seventh in pitch value. 

Now, they’ll face Lance McCullers Jr., who uses a slider, curve and sinker mix to pepper the edges of the strike zone and may be more traditionally effective. He has not pitched as much this season as many other starters, but against these same Phillies, McCullers allowed only one earned run in six innings of work.

For the Phillies, it’s safe to say Game 3 is a bullpen game — all of Noah Syndergaard’s postseason appearances have been three innings or fewer. 

Though he’s only allowed one earned run in three stints, there are good reasons why it’s best to keep Syndergaard’s appearance short to where he does not see the lineup more than once and can pitch effectively in a possible Game 7. Noteworthy is his strikeout percentage ranks in the 12th percentile of pitchers, and Astros hitters are dangerous when they make contact. 

What’s interesting about this rested Phillies bullpen is how drastically it has performed lately. In the regular season, Philadelphia relief pitching ranked 13th in expected batting average allowed (.228). Still, in the postseason, they’ve been fifth best at .187 but, more importantly, an improvement of more than 40 points.

Now to answer your question: Will this be on the test? The answer is yes! As I mentioned in our MVP class, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are two of my favorite MVP bets. One same-game parlay is for both of them to get a hit (-125 on FOX Bet). 

Speaking of Altuve, another bet I like is an anytime home run (+475 on FOX Bet). While it has seemed like he has been swinging too wildly early in October, he did hit 28 dingers in the regular season and is now heating up, so pounce immediately. 

Finally, Philadelphia’s bullpen may be due for regression to the mean. At some point, one pitcher may get into some trouble against some outstanding hitters. Houston can cover the run line (+100 on FOX Bet).

PICK: Astros (-1 run line) to win by more than 1 run (+100 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $20 total)

PICK: Jose Altuve to hit a home run (+475 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $57.50 total)

PICK: Parlay, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve to each get a hit in Game 3 (-125 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $18 total)

Now, for the Super 6 question-and-answer portion of class.

Super 6 Contest PicksHow many total runs will be scored in the game?

I think it’s telling that this game has a total of eight runs per FOX Bet when, in the past, we’ve often seen seven. That we’re getting deeper into the series and the weather won’t be incredibly cold in Philadelphia tonight leads me to believe it’s OK to trust the market. Take 8-9 runs.

Which team will throw the most strikeouts and how many will they have?

Going back to the bullpen statistics, even though the Phillies have been more effective, it has not been with the strikeout. Their rate in the postseason is only 30.4%, which is slightly better than league average. However, McCullers’ K% is 25.6%. Houston’s bullpen can strike out a lot of hitters, but I’ll take the Phillies here but with a modest 6.

Which team will have the most hits and how many will they have?

Because I am expecting a slightly higher-scoring contest that the Astros win, they should have several hits tonight. Because Syndergaard & Co. may try to keep the ball down, there may not be a lot of home runs beyond the usual suspects, so I like 10.

Again, think of multiple paths where this number could hit. If this game goes into extra innings, a higher number would also make more sense.

Which team will have the most combined individual baserunners left on base and how many will they have?

Because I have the Astros with a lot of singles and doubles but also some strikeouts, it may be a high number. If they have 10 hits but eight of them are singles and doubles, add to that a smattering of walks, and you have a lot of possibilities. I like 11-12.

Which team will have the most at-bats and how many will they have?

Let’s do some simple math. There are 27 at-bats for the Astros at a minimum (remember, plate appearances are different because they include walks), and 10 hits is the number I like, so let’s go with 37.

Which team will win and by how many runs?

Even though the series is shifting to Philadelphia and the scene will be electric, Astros hitters are too much to withstand over the course of any series. Houston will win this game by a 6-3 score, so three runs is my pick.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports. 

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Source : Fox Sports

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