West Virginia (5-5, 4-3) will close out the home portion of their 2024 campaign next Saturday when they play host to the UCF Knights (4-6, 2-5).
Although the Mountaineers appear to be the better team on paper, the sportsbooks don’t like their chances in this matchup with one of the newer members of the Big 12.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, UCF is currently a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 64.5.
I always say they don’t build those massive, fancy buildings in the desert for nothing. However, I struggle to see how the Mountaineers are the underdog in this game. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if this eventually flips to WVU as the favorite, or at least down to a pick’em.
The Knights are going to rely on its ground game, and that’s the one thing the Mountaineers have done well all year on the defensive side of the ball. UCF doesn’t throw the ball a whole lot, and I expect that even against a soft pass defense, Gus Malzahn will be stubborn and rely on the ground game to get the job done.
Plus, it’s also senior day for West Virginia. The season has not gone the way anyone had anticipated it, but they still have a chance to end the year on a strong note by winning these final two games and taking whichever bowl game they get invited to play in.
Quarterback Garrett Greene has gone through on-field struggles and injuries all year long, causing the fanbase to want redshirt sophomore Nicco Marchiol to take over the reins of the offense, who has won each of his two starts. Even if West Virginia’s last two games were on the road, I don’t believe Neal Brown would make a switch. He seems content with riding out the rest of the season with his senior.
With it being Greene’s final game, you’d have to think he’s going to go out a winner. Whether he actually does or not remains to be seen, but when you stack these two teams side by side and look at the situation, I think it favors the Mountaineers.
West Virginia is 4-6 against the spread this season.
The total has gone OVER in four of West Virginia’s last five games.
The Mountaineers are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games played at home.
Eight of West Virginia’s last 10 Big 12 Conference game have gone OVER the total.
The total has gone OVER in each of West Virginia’s last five games played in the month of November.
UCF TrendsUCF is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games played.
The total has gone OVER in eight of UCF’s last ten games.
The Knights have won nine of their last twelve games played in the month of November.
UCF has lost four of its last five games played on the road.
UCF has lost six of its last seven games straight up.
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Source : Sports Illustrated